And now that you have succeeded in being left behind by the party of Fortune Seekers, you find your way to the waiting room and settle down comfortably in a corner, preferably one with a view.
You Observe & form an Opinion .
You’re trying your best to make sense of things. Not surprised if only a very few of them ever do!
“The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes.”
Sherlock Holmes
You don’t have to like them, even fully understand but, study them you must. It is about gathering dots….. more the better.
Just like Munger and Buffett who both set aside plenty of time, each day, just to read and to think.
Thinking is a surprisingly underrated activity.
“The best way to minimize risk is to think.”
Warren Buffett
Unfortunately since one can hardly ever gather all the facts and even if one does, knowing well that facts change, one has to work largely with opinions.
“The fundamental flaw in the way Market works is – its determination by opinion of the collective.
For an astute investor, this makes for a good prospect”.
Parikshit
The distinction between what is certain, and what merely an opinion, was best elaborated by Plato in his works of Epistemology.
“Between Knowledge of what really exists and Ignorance of what does not exist lies the domain of Opinion.
It is more obscure than knowledge but clearer than ignorance.”
Plato
Legendary investor George Soros echoes this when he says, “market price is usually expressed as a prevailing bias rather than a correct valuation.”
A philosophy emerges
You knit together the pieces of information and opinions, form a philosophy.
A self guide for reference which helps define the decision making blueprint. A lattice of mental models you could throw your questions at.
You then work with the answers that come through, knowing too well of their imperfections. You are fully aware of the possible regrets that lie ahead in waiting when all you have to make do with, are less than perfect decisions.
You do not aim for accuracy. Far from it. You accept in totality the uncertainty that will be the only constant.
You try to be largely right than wrong.
You filter
A lot of potential opportunities catch your attention when you put your philosophy to work.
You reject more than you take. You don’t work with what you don’t fully understand.
Contrary to popular belief much benefit lies in committing the error of omission in investing.
“It has got little to do with the quality of opportunity, more with the quality of your Understanding .
No reward is worth the cost of one’s Clarity”.
Parikshit
You select a very few. It helps if they are not popular, but it’s imperative they be just right for you.
With a few targets identified, you ignore the noise and load your gun. You become the second hunter.
….. to be continued in “The second hunter.”